Gemini prices IPO above range, shares pop in Nasdaq debut
Wall Street just gave the Winklevoss twins a clear vote of confidence. Gemini Space Station, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, raised $425 million in its initial public offering after pricing shares at $28—above an already increased range. That puts the New York-based company near a $3.3 billion valuation at the offer price, a notable marker for a sector that has seen both dizzying booms and deep pullbacks.
The offering covered 15.2 million shares and drew enough demand to push pricing above the revised $24 to $26 range, which itself had been lifted from an initial $17 to $19 target. On Friday, the stock began trading on the Nasdaq at $37.01, shot as high as $45.89, and finished the session at $32—still a 14% gain on day one. For a market that watches crypto headlines like a heartbeat monitor, that’s a strong start.
The Winklevoss brothers used the moment to restate a big swing: they still believe bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade. Whether you buy that call or not, the reception to the debut says investors are willing to fund scaled, compliant crypto infrastructure even after years of volatility and regulatory friction.
Gemini’s business spans more than a retail trading app. The company runs a spot exchange, offers institutional custody, issues a U.S. dollar–backed stablecoin, provides a crypto rewards credit card, and supports staking products where permitted. As of the end of July 2025, it oversaw more than $21 billion in assets, giving it real heft in a crowded field.
There’s a flip side. The company is still losing money. Gemini reported a $159 million loss in 2024 and a $283 million loss in the first half of 2025. Those figures underscore a familiar challenge in crypto: revenue is tied to trading activity, which can spike and fade with sentiment. When volumes dry up, so do fees. When they surge, margins expand fast. Investors buying into the listing are betting that the cycle turns in Gemini’s favor and that its broader product mix cushions the lows.
Pricing above the range is more than optics. It suggests bookrunners saw strong enough orders to push for a premium, and it gives Gemini more capital than if it had stuck at the midpoint. That fresh cash can go to product development, security, compliance, and expansion into markets where digital-asset rules are clearer. None of those are optional in this industry; they’re table stakes.
The first day of trading also tells us how the market views risk. Opening with a 32% pop from the offer price, touching an intraday peak near $46, then closing at $32 shows there’s excitement—but also a ceiling for now. Early volatility is normal in tech and finance IPOs, and crypto-related names tend to move more than most. Expect that to continue as funds build or trim positions.
If you’re looking for comps, there aren’t many direct ones. Coinbase went public via a direct listing in 2021 and remains the most visible U.S.-listed crypto exchange. Binance, the world’s largest by volume, is private. A handful of miners and infrastructure firms trade publicly, but full-service exchanges with custody, payments, and consumer products are rare on public markets. That scarcity helps explain the attention around Gemini’s deal.
What are investors paying for? A scaled platform with brand recognition, a regulated footprint, and multiple lines of potential revenue: trading fees, custody services for institutions, card interchange, staking economics (where allowed), and income tied to stablecoin operations. With interest rates higher than they were for most of the last decade, stablecoin reserve yields have been a meaningful earnings lever across the industry. How much of that accrues to Gemini in the next few quarters will be a key watch item.
The risks aren’t subtle. Regulation is still the swing factor in the U.S., from how staking is treated to what counts as a security. Rule changes can reshape product sets overnight. Credit risk has not vanished either; the industry learned hard lessons during the last downturn. Gemini’s history includes legal disputes tied to yield products offered with third parties, and while the company has pushed to move past that chapter, investors will keep scrutinizing counterparty exposure and risk controls.
On the flip side, crypto’s adoption curve keeps bending higher during bull phases. New capital enters, developers build, tokenization pilots move from press release to pilot, and institutions dip deeper into custody and execution. That’s where Gemini’s institutional business could matter. Custody and prime services generate stickier revenue than bursty retail trading. If institutions expand allocations, that mix could tilt in Gemini’s favor.
The headline numbers from day one will grab attention, but the real test starts now. Can Gemini grow verified users without overspending on marketing? Can it lift take rates without pushing clients to cheaper venues? Can it expand outside the U.S. while tailoring to local rulebooks? Those are execution questions, not sentiment questions, and they’ll decide how the stock trades after the IPO halo fades.
Valuation is another moving target. The roughly $3.3 billion mark at pricing looks conservative if crypto volumes keep rising and cost discipline holds. It looks rich if the market cools and losses widen. That’s why quarterly disclosures will matter. Watch for metrics like trading volume by customer type, custody assets, stablecoin supply, unit economics for the card business, and any traction in new products.
There’s also a practical market dynamic at work: supply. Many IPOs include lockups that prevent insiders from selling shares for a set period. When those lockups expire, more stock can hit the market, sometimes pressuring the price. On the other hand, a broader float can attract more institutions that prefer deeper liquidity. It cuts both ways.
For users, the listing doesn’t change how the app works. But it does add a layer of public-company discipline. Earnings calls, audited results, and sharper disclosures create a feedback loop with investors. If management executes and the market cooperates, that can lower the company’s cost of capital over time—useful in a cyclical business.
The timing helps. While crypto remains volatile, investor appetite for profitable or near-profitable fintech and infrastructure names has improved from the lows of the last bear market. A clean balance sheet and a path toward operating leverage can go a long way with portfolio managers trying to add growth without taking on balance-sheet landmines.
The message from the debut is straightforward: there’s demand for listed exposure to crypto platforms that look institutional-grade, even if profits are still down the road. The next few quarters will show whether Gemini can translate a hot start into durable growth—by defending share in spot trading, scaling custody, and driving steady revenue from payments, staking where allowed, and stablecoin-related services.
Why this listing matters—and what to watch next
For a sector still rebuilding trust, a well-received U.S. exchange listing is a milestone. Coinbase’s 2021 debut set a template but came at peak euphoria. Gemini is arriving in a market that’s more sober, with investors asking harder questions about unit economics and risk management. Clearing that higher bar means more than a strong opening print.
Here’s what to track in the months ahead:
- Quarterly volumes and take rates: Are trading fees growing faster than costs?
- Custody growth: Do institutions park more assets with Gemini, and at what margins?
- Stablecoin metrics: Supply, adoption, and how reserve yields contribute to revenue.
- Product mix: How much comes from staking, card spend, and new services versus spot trading?
- Regulatory developments: Any changes that affect staking, token listings, or capital requirements.
Strip away the hype and it’s simple: the Gemini IPO gives the company fresh capital and a public scorecard. If volumes stay healthy and the firm shows discipline, that first-day pop won’t be the only bright spot this year.
